According to experts, prices will increase by more than 6% on average, and the unemployment rate will increase from 6.5% to 7.1% by the end of 2023
The energy crisis will cause a further recession in the eurozone economy in 2023. This was reported on Wednesday by the Financial Times newspaper with reference to economists.
In their opinion, high inflation and a shortage of energy resources will provoke a further reduction in production and a deterioration of the situation on the labor market. Thus, the eurozone economy will shrink by 0.01% next year, despite the fact that the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) predicted its growth by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. According to experts, prices on average will rise by more than 6% next year and by almost 2.7% in 2024, and the unemployment rate will increase from 6.5% to 7.1% by the end of 2023.
Analysts believe that European countries have managed to reduce their dependence on Russian gas imports, in particular by increasing fuel supplies from Norway, the United States and Middle Eastern countries. At the same time, they warn that without Russian gas it will be much more difficult to fill the storage facilities on the eve of next winter. The question "about the supply of energy resources for this period is still open," said Sylvain Breuer, chief economist at the international rating agency S&P Global Ratings. "Gas markets in Europe remain a key risk area. Additional supply disruptions or a particularly cold winter can lead to <...> another price increase," the publication quotes the words of Morgan Stanley bank economist Chiara Zangarelli.
Thus, 90% of 37 economists surveyed by the newspaper believe that the eurozone is already in recession, and also predict a reduction in GDP over the next year. According to the Professor of Economics of the International Free University of Social Sciences. Guido Carli Marcello Messori, a further increase in ECB interest rates to counteract "excessive inflation" caused by the shock in the energy supply sector, "will lead to a serious recession in the eurozone."
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